Titanium Dioxide Market Review Q3 2025 & Outlook: What It Means for Your Automotive Refinish Business

Titanium Dioxide (TiO2) is a critical raw material for the coatings industry, including the automotive refinish paints we all depend on. Its price and supply stability directly affect production costs and market strategy.

The third quarter of 2025 continued a challenging period for the TiO2 market. While there was a slight price rebound in September, the overall trend remained soft due to weaker-than-expected demand. This report breaks down the latest market dynamics and explains the potential impact on the automotive refinish sector, helping you make informed decisions for your business.

1. Price Trend: A Continued Downturn with a Weak Rebound

The Big Picture:
In Q3 2025, the average price of Titanium Dioxide continued to fall. A minor recovery in September failed to gain strong momentum because end-user demand stayed low. The average quarterly price settled at 12,992 RMB/ton, dropping 8.92% from the previous quarter and 14.21% compared to the same period last year. This represents the lowest price point in the past five years.

Key Data Points:

Price at Start of Quarter: 13,400 RMB/ton

Price at End of August: 12,850 RMB/tonSeptember Price: Slightly recovered to 13,000 RMB/ton

What This Means for Automotive Refinish:
The falling price of TiO2 can lower raw material costs for refinish paint manufacturers. This could potentially ease cost pressures along the supply chain. However, the underlying weakness in downstream demand continues to squeeze overall profit margins. We recommend businesses keep a close watch on price movements and consider adjusting procurement strategies to capitalize on lower price points.

2. Cost & Profit: Squeezed Margins and a Focus on Sales Volume

Cost Situation:
Production costs for TiO2 remained largely stable in Q3 compared to Q2. However, with selling prices falling by around 1,300 RMB/ton, industry-wide losses grew more severe.

How Producers Are Responding:
Facing intense competition, most TiO2 producers prioritized maintaining their market share. They announced price increases of 500-800 RMB/ton in late August to stimulate market activity. However, the actual implemented increases were much smaller, typically between 100-300 RMB/ton. This shows that their primary goal was to boost sales volume and reduce inventory, rather than genuinely improve profitability.

Your Strategic Takeaway:
Automotive refinish paint companies can use this buyer's market to negotiate more favorable prices with their TiO2 suppliers. It is also an opportune time to optimize inventory levels, avoiding overstocking and freeing up working capital.

3. Export Market: Anti-Dumping Policies and a Potential Break in India

Overall Export Data:
From January to August 2025, China's cumulative TiO2 exports reached 1.19 million tons. This is an 8% contraction compared to the 1.29 million tons exported in the same period last year. The export volume has been consistently declining since March 2025.

Root Causes:
Two main factors are driving this trend:

1. Global Economic Slowdown: Weaker international growth is dampening demand for Chinese TiO2.

2. Active Anti-Dumping Policies: The European Union, Brazil, and India are all effectively enforcing anti-dumping measures. These markets account for over 35% of China's total TiO2 exports, creating persistent pressure on the domestic market.

Focus on India – A Potential Game Changer:
India is a key export market for Chinese TiO2. Last year, exports to India reached approximately 310,000 tons, accounting for 16% of total exports. However, in the five months (May-August) since India imposed anti-dumping duties, exports to the region plummeted by 52%, totaling just 55,200 tons.

There are now positive signs that India may cancel these anti-dumping duties, though a final decision is pending. If the duties are lifted, it could lead to a significant increase in Chinese exports—by roughly 10,000 tons per month.

Implication for Your Business:
Changes in the export market directly influence the domestic supply and demand balance for TiO2 in China. If India reopens its market, it will absorb a portion of domestic supply, which could slow down the rate of price decline in China. Staying informed on these international trade developments is crucial for forecasting your own cost environment.

4. Production & Sales: A Cautious "Peak Season"

September Production:
TiO2 manufacturers significantly increased their operating rates in September. This was mainly to fulfill a backlog of orders placed earlier in the year, as distributors were actively taking delivery.

Downstream Demand Reality:
Despite the production uptick, the typical "peak season" was weaker than usual. During the National Day holiday, many downstream factories extended their shutdown periods and cut production more deeply than in previous years. Due to a pessimistic outlook on final demand, these companies placed only minimal new orders for October, adopting a very cautious approach.

Advice for Refinish Paint Companies:
In a soft market, competing solely on price becomes a race to the bottom. We advise businesses to strengthen customer relationships and enhance the value of their service offerings—such as technical support, color matching accuracy, and faster delivery times—to build loyalty beyond price.

5. Q4 2025 Market Forecast: Domestic Weakness vs. Export Hope

Domestic Demand Outlook:

October: We expect TiO2 prices to see a small, negotiated increase of 200-300 RMB/ton, placing the price range between 12,800 and 13,700 RMB/ton, driven by the recent producer announcements.

November-December: As the market enters the traditional low-demand winter season, prices will likely face renewed downward pressure. We forecast the price range to fall to between 12,200 and 13,000 RMB/ton due to insufficient domestic demand.

Export Market Outlook:

India: The potential cancellation of anti-dumping duties remains the biggest variable. A positive decision would provide a substantial boost to Chinese exports.

Brazil & Saudi Arabia: Decisions regarding anti-dumping policies in these markets are expected in October. The industry is hopeful, especially for a reduction in Brazil's tariff rate, which could improve export volumes and help alleviate domestic supply pressure.

Overall Forecast for Q4:
The Titanium Dioxide market in China is expected to remain under pressure in the fourth quarter, trending downwards. The primary drag will be weak domestic demand. While potential improvements in the export market could partially offset this negative impact, they are unlikely to completely reverse the trend. We anticipate prices will fluctuate within a defined lower range.

Conclusion: Strategic Recommendations for Automotive Refinish Paint Companies

The TiO2 market is expected to stay in a downward cycle through the end of 2025, with weak domestic demand being the dominant factor. To navigate this environment successfully, automotive refinish paint companies should consider the following actions:

1. Adopt a Flexible Procurement Strategy: Monitor the market for price lows and consider making smaller, more frequent purchases instead of large, infrequent ones.

2. Optimize Inventory Management: Avoid holding high-cost inventory. Keep stock levels lean to reduce capital commitment and minimize risk.

3. Enhance Your Value Proposition: Use this period of lower input costs to strengthen your product quality and customer service, moving competition away from price alone.

4. Stay Informed on Global Trade: Keep a close watch on anti-dumping policy announcements in key markets like India and Brazil, as these will significantly impact domestic Chinese TiO2 supply and pricing.

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